Two Steps Up

The climb out of winter usually involves the weather taking two steps up, one step down, two steps up, one step down, etc. etc. until consistently warm temperatures are reached. This pattern has been especially evident this season...the most recent steps up being the warmth a week and half ago and the step down being the rain and cooler temperatures of this past week. We are about to take another two steps up. Each day for the next 4 or 5 will feature sunny skies and warmer temperatures. We top out around 70 on Wednesday before a small step down is taken with some showers and temperatures in the mid 60s for the end of the week. Some scattered showers may hang around for Easter...but of course that is a long ways out and will likely change. Enjoy the nice week!

Spring and Senior Project Presentations have arrived!

Not often does the weather agree with the calendar. What we call the first day of spring is often either very winter-like or a continuation of spring-like weather that has probably ben around for a few weeks. This year, the first day of spring (March 19) actually started a transition from cold to warm. We are now, a week and a half later, getting to the really Springtime warmth. Temperatures over the next few days will climb higher and higher until we top out at about 65 on Friday. Note that there is no school for MV that day...sounds like a perfect opportunity to spend some time outside and enjoy the final day of March.

April will come Saturday with what else but April showers. We do need the rain...but it may impede on some weekend plans.

Until then, enjoy Spring!

Long delay...but not weather to speak of!

I apologize for the long delay since my last post, but there hasn't been any weather to speak of anyway! We have seen a continuous stretch of mostly sunny to partly cloudy days with highs in the upper 30s and low 40s and lows dipping into the teens and twenties. Expect this to continue...possibly until mid-April. No harsh cold or major storms will likely affect us during this period...and when the middle of April comes around, we could be in store for a huge warm up. One day, we will wake up and the temperature will be 60 degrees. Until then, expect more of the same with maybe just few days of more clouds and the chance for some showers of snow or rain.

Recently, the major weather outlets have release the 2006 Hurricane Season predictions. The season is still a few months away but this it is never too early to start preparing. Why do I mention this in this weather blog for Penacook, NH? First of all, a major storm like Katrina or Wilma affects everyone. Secondly, some of the readers, namely those going on to college, may be destined for more hurricane-prone areas. Even those who are not...be advised. All of the predictions mention the chance of a major hurricane strike for the Northeast. Current trends match those that were around in 1938, 1944, and 1954 - all years that saw a major hurricane strike the coast of New England or the northern mid-Atlantic. The season in general is expected to be busier than normal but not as bad as 2005...keep in mind, last year was the worst on record.

Just something to keep in the back of your mind.

Until next time, enjoy!

Which Season?

In this blog, I like to talk about the weather for the area in which I am located. I will continue with that philosophy in summarizing Tuesday's and Wednesday's Weather.
Tuesday: A mix of clouds and sun. Breezy. High of 84°F.
Wednesday: Mostly Sunny. Much cooler with a high around 74°F.

Wait a minute...highs in the 80s? Huh?

The truth is, I will be in Melbourne, FL for the next two days touring the campus of Florida Institute of Technology and the surrounding area. The weather for the tour looks great!

In the mean time, back home, the weather will be going through an identity crisis. Some thundery rains will move through overnight. Tuesday will begin warm but colder air will move in during the day on stiff breezes. Temps will fall from the 50s into the 40s...and highs on Wednesday, even with some sunshine, will likely not get out of the 40s. Note that that temperature change in NH and in FL are the same (about 10F°), but there is a greater difference between the feel of 50s to 40s than there is between 80 and 70!

This colder pattern (highs in 30s and 40s, lows in teens and 20s) will likely last through the end of March. During that time, we may see another snowstorm! Matt Noyes mentions in his blog the possibility of a system around the vernal equinox...we will have to wait and see!

Enjoy, I will be back home Thursday!

New Radiation Shield

I've made some changes to the outdoor thermo unit. First of all, it is now extended away from the house, which may lead to more accurate temp and humidity readings. More importantly, I have installed a *homemade* radiation shield over it. What it really is is six styrofoam bowls separated with toothpicks and duct tape. The idea is that the sun will hit the upper bowl, that bowl will absorb some of the heat which in turn will get blown away in the wind. If some heat makes it down to the next bowl, the process should repeat until hopefully no extra heat makes it to the sensor itself. We will find out tomorrow morning if temperatures do not spike as the sun shines on the sensor in the morning!

Speaking of tomorrow, we will be seeing less sun throughout the day than we have the past two days and some showers will move in tomorrow night. There is a small chance of some of the showers turning to freezing rain overnight, but they will be scattered enough that they will not affect anything.

After that little disturbance, some very warm air moves in for the weekend. Friday and Staurday's highs will approach 60...with plenty of sunshine Saturday Friday especially, maybe some more showers Saturday.

This warmth should last through the end of next week before another shot of winter moves in, possible, for the end of the month. I will keep you informed!!!

Enjoy the warm weekend! 

Change is in the air

Now that I have the weather station running flawlessly, I have been able to utilize the technology available to a fuller extent. First of all, you will notice new current observation picture to your right. It is a little squashed, but you can click on it to view the full size one. I created that myself and can change it, so if anyone has any suggestions on improvements please let me know!

I have also created a new website that goes through the actual weather station. You can check it out here (if the secure connection gives you problems, simply remove the 's' form https://). At the bottom of that page is a link to a slideshow that I am creating for my senior project presentation. If course that is a work in progress.

I have also begun uploading to another weather server just to see what is different. You can see the data at this link.

Things are really coming together now. I will keep you updated as I make more changes in the future.

As for the weather, I think it is safe to say that we are done with snow. I know the whole season was a bust...but there will be several storms that will slide to our South next week before a pattern shift occurs and we get into Springtime weather.

Until next time, enjoy!

What a good storm today! Snow came down at a good clip from noon on...as of 9:47 PM, it still is! My *unofficial* snow observation was 5.75"...I would expect 6" would be safe to say when it's all said and done. 

Saturday Snow

So many times in weather forecasts do anticipated storm events fall apart at the last minute. Of course it is not correct to say that the storm shifted track or did not grow as large, as the storm knew what it was going to do all along. We just can not yet pinpoint exactly what that plan is.

Anyway, that is not the case today. A storm that was originally forecast to bring us 1-3" then later maybe 2-5" has this morning been forecasted to drop 4-7"". Expect clouds to lower and thicken through the morning with snow starting around late morning to about noon. It will fall rather heavily at times, and will move out overnight tonight, as to not hinder any plans I may have of going to Boston tomorrow!!!:-D

Enjoy the weekend, I will be back Monday.

Nice snow

It's nice when things go right. My weather station has had over 24 hours of uninterrupted data. And it snowed today. This is more like it. The picture abovbe was taken at about 4:40 this afternoon. It didn't snow for very long but it came down at a good clip and accumulated to a coating rather quickly. I enjoyed it and hope you did too. This same kind of thing will continue tomorrow and Saturday (hit and miss snow showers) before some more organized snow for Saturday night into Sunday. We could see 1-3" then. Behind that moves in more arctic air. Should be nice for vacation...little cold, but quiet weather. Until then, enjoy. 

At last...

It has been a very long road, but I believe that I have successfully gotten a separate computer to upload my weather station data. This means that data should be available 24/7 and I can take my laptop with me again without losing upload time! Technology is nice when it works.

Sorry for a lack of updates this week, I have been working to get that set up. Not that we had much going on anyway. The same thing will happen for the next few days... but we will see more clouds and some occasional snow showers from now through Sunday before another blast of Arctic air moves in. Sunday night and Monday will be windy and cold much like last Friday and Saturday (not AS windy, however!!!). Highs next week will likely not reach 30. Still no big storms in sight :(.

The graph shows the temperatures for Thursday, February 16. The highest range of the graph is the previous record set in 1972 of 55°F. As you can see, temperatures from 1:00 to 6:00 this afternoon were above that. At 2:33, the temperature peaked at 58°F. This day was one for the record books.

Don't expect it to last! After morning warmth tomorrow, showers will move through along with winds that may gust to 40-50 mph. These winds will subside after the front moves through, but they will still remain active and will usher in frigid arctic air. Highs Saturday will just barely get above 20 and Sunday will likely be below 20 all day. Combined with the winds, wind chills Saturday night could approach -30°. Storm possibilities lay ahead for next week...not too sure about them, however. Have a great weekend! 

Interesting overnight temperatures

The graph above shows temperatures (green line) and wind speeds (blue line) from midnight to 7:00 AM Tuesday (times shown are UTC; EST is -5 hrs). The prominent feature of the graph is the dip in temperatures that bottomed out around 4:00 AM. Notice also that for the few hours preceding and proceeding this time, winds were completely calm. These two are related.

Warm air rises and cold air sinks. We in the Merrimack Valley are located at a low elevation, so at night when the sun is no longer heating the earth, the air the cold sinks down into the valley while the warm air rises above our heads. When there is wind, these layers are stirred up thus keeping temperatures at the ground a bit warmer. This phenomenon obviously happened overnight and is very well depicted in the graph. Something neat I wanted to share:-D

The weather will be quiet for most of this week. Temperatures will actually get quite warm, rising above 40 on Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday. Rain will fall Friday, and some thunderstorms may even move through later in the day as a very strong cold front pushes through. If the rain leaves any puddles on the ground, they will quickly freeze Friday night. Arctic air will come POURING in behind the cold front and we will see some of the coldest air we have seen all season long. Highs Saturday and Sunday will not get out if the 20s if they get there at all and lows Saturday night will likely fall below zero. After we moderate some early next week, another snowstorm may come our way. Stay tuned and enjoy the mild air while it makes its brief return. Happy Valentine's Day!

Not-so-major storm.

Snow will start early Sunday morning and last through most of the day. It will also get very windy so the snow will blow and drift. By tomorrow night expect probably 5-7" of snow. Nothing we can't handle. Enjoy!

Go figure!

I like to give things more hype than they deserve a lot of times. I'm not one for conservative forecasting, I want to scare people with threats of big storms that will keep you trapped in your house for days. The one time there is a big storm possibility and I don't mention it, the threat does not dissipate and things actually come together. That's right. Yesterday I said there would be no big storms for a bit because it seems every potential there is for one (and there was a potential for Sunday) has been failing and we have seen nothing. The confidence for this storm has been increasing, however, much unlike others that start high and confidence drops out the day before.

If everything plays out right we could get a good dumping of snow. As irresponsible as professional meteorologist say it is to make snowfall predictions days ahead of a storm, I have nothing to lose and will go ahead and say there is a good chance we will see a foot. For now I will stick with a 10-12" prediction. Stay tuned for updates (likely Friday Night, Saturday morning if anything changes and again Saturday night). Get out the shovels and snowblowers, for winter is back and it is back big.

New feature!

It's been a while! There's been no weather to speak of, however. Will there ever be anything exciting? I'll get to that...in the meantime, I'm happy to introduce a new feature to the weather station page that can be viewed by clicking the current observation tag to your right. Now, the updates are loaded every 5 seconds. That's right, fast enough to be considered real time. While "official" weather stations are giving reports once per hour, you can get current obsvs from me at the rate of 720 an hour. I guess it's then safe to say that my weather stations is 720 times better than the official one :-P.

As for the weather...it's been cold! One would think that since we were getting lots of storms (with rain) that once it got colder we would get lots of snowstorms. Makes sense, right? The problem is, now those storms aren't hitting us. Mother nature is just completely against snow lovers this year. Aside from some small disturbances every few days with scattered snow shower or light snow, not much will likely happen. Some forecasters are calling for a brief warm up before we turn into a really bitterly cold pattern...and maybe some storms to go with it. Stay tuned!

11:00pm UPDATE: The graph above shows temperatures from 7:00 this evening to 10:50. As you can see, they bottomes out at around 8:30 just above 32 degrees but have risen since then. For this reason, I do not feel that icing will be a major issue for the morning commute. 

SCHOOL DELAY CHANCE REPORT

The NWS has posted a winter weather advisory for our area for a possible snow/ice accumulation of up to one inch before precipitation changes to all rain. If we do get this mix, there is a SMALL CHANCE of a delay for Friday morning. Who knows, though, we could just get all rain. Note, however, that temperature at 8:00 were just tenths of a degree above freezing. We will see. No post tomorrow...see you Saturday. No major storms in sight as it stands right now. Enjoy the weekend.

A call to Arms

ATTENTION, Citizens of the Northeast! We all know that this winter has been a dismal disappointment to say the least. Should we just sit here and let all the big snowstorms and cold air pass us by as we are forced to endure day after day of sunny, warm weather?! ABSOLUTELY NOT! We need to do something to claim winter back. The time is NOW!

Unfortunately, there is not much that we can do. I may have jumped the gun on a pattern shift occurring this past weekend, but forecasters really are calling for one to happen over the next two weeks. Do not expect to see much sun around here for a while...a parade of storms is lined up with one hitting roughly every 2 or 3 days. The first in line will come Friday with rain :(. Cold air moving in for Saturday night means that the next storm, slated for Sunday, will either start as rain and change to snow or be all snow (not all that large, probably). A larger storm may hit in the vicinity of next Tuesday...which would be exactly in line with the large storm mentioned in the previous post. After that, brace yourself. The arctic air that has been pooling up in Russia and now Canada will eventually spill into our neck of the woods. Forecasters calling for a very active, cold February...winter shall be ours once again!

The Final Days of the Lackluster Winter

This winter has been an extreme disappointment to those who like cold and snow. The next few days will be a continuation of this...sunny Friday, Saturday and early Sunday before a rain/some mix storm for Sunday night. Behind that will hopefully move in colder air in time for another storm Monday night and Tuesday. This one could be the first of a two-week transition period. It could bring some significant snows, we will have to stay tuned. Another storm will probably come one week later - and that one could be a VERY large storm. The recent warmth has allowed energy to build up across the country...and as the cold air over Siberia begins to move into Canada and eventually in our direction, the energy has to go someplace. I think we will have plenty of storm opportunities in the next two weeks with plenty of cold air around for then and beyond. As always, stay tuned. Have a nice weekend, no need for a post tomorrow.

Snow Day Chance Report

After an evening of enjoying the freshly fallen snow on the slopes, I came home to see that all of my weather sources are now calling for a 3-6" snowfall.

Snow will likely start around midnight as mentioned below and stick around until tomorrow afternoon (with the heaviest snow hitting right before and during the morning commute, possibly...)

Considering this and the events that took place Monday, I would like to set my Snow Day Chance Report for Wednesday, January 24, 2006 as: SLIGHTLY MORE THAN JUST POSSIBLE.

More Snow

Winter returned with a vengeance. After yesterday's mess, Wednesday morning's commute is not looking much brighter. Snow will move in (actually it will sort of form over us) around midnight....and it will be heavy at times and last through 8 or 9 tomorrow morning. Expect 2-4" by the end of it...with a band of 3-6" snow forming not to far from us. I'll be skiing tonight...keep your eye on the forecast.

URGENT UPDATE

Last week I talked about how the weather can change in a minute around here. So can the forecasts. While everyone was leaving towards a 1-3" snowfall earlier today, all outlets are now predicting 3-6" for our region. We MAY even see 7". Still, snow wont's start until 9 or 10 AM. Early release???

Snow Day Chance Report

Welcome to the special edition of Tony's Weather Blog" Snow Day Chance Report. Anytime there is snow or other inclement weather in the forecast for a school day, I will issue this report.

There is in fact a *weak* snowstorm on the way for Monday. 2 issues: it is weak, and precipitation will likely be very light in the morning and it might not even start until 8:00 or 9:00. Also, total accumulations will be 2 inches, 3 inches max. For these reasons, my Snow Day Chance Report is: QUITE LOW.

(Chances range from Very Low to Extremely High).

Enjoy your Sunday, and more than likely I will see you tomorrow.

WINTER SET TO RETURN

After an extended vacation, Winter is about to return! Oh, how we missed you. 20-30 mph winds will usher in cooler air overnight, and highs Sunday will stay in the 30s. A storm system will move up the coats for Monday...and we will likely see some snow during the day. Right now, it looks like 2 or 3 inches. After that, get ready to say brrrrrr. Arctic air will finally start moving down, and by the end of next weeks highs will only reach the low 20s and lows will dip to around or below zero. This is more like it.

Quiet end to the week

After yesterday, today was a very nice day. Winds were still a little gusty but nothing like yesterday. I hope everyone got a chance to enjoy it. Tomorrow will be similar with a few more clouds maybe. We may see some scattered rain/snow showers on Saturday and temperatures will be running in the low 30s each day. Sunday will be a cooler but mostly sunny, and our next storm chance moves in for Monday. Still a long ways out, but it should be cold enough for snow if anything days happen.

I should be able to get a weather station-devoted computer up this evening, although I haven't had any problems lately. My laptop will enjoy being shut down, though!

Weekend Review...and some more wild weather coming up!

The graph that you see above is showing the drop in temperature that occurred between Saturday and Sunday, January 14 to 15. Here are some numbers that I feel are important to know:
Noontime Temperature, Saturday, January 14: 54°F
Noontime Temperature, Sunday, January 15: 16°F
24 Hour Temperature Drop: 38F° (Fahrenheit degrees)
Wind chill Reading, 1:55 AM January 16: -21.2°F

Now for the forecast. Today is a relatively nice day! Temperatures are hovering right below 40°, winds are pretty calm and the sun is shining. This is the calm before the storm, literally. Pressure has been holding steady since3 about 11:00 AM as the center of high pressure and cold air moved just about due north of New England. This will give way to an intense low pressure system moving in from the southwest. Precipitation will probably start a little after midnight. This initial burst will likely be in the form of snow - changing to an icy mix as warmer air moves in overhead. This mix may old out just long enough to affect the morning commute tomorrow...delay, anyone?...before changing to all rain. This rain will be heavy at times and some mid-day thunderstorms may move through. Also, winds will pick up in a big way. Expect 20 or 30 mph winds to blow through during the day. Just a note...winds may gust to hurricane force along the coast of Maine. Don't plan on doing too much outside tomorrow. Thursday and Friday will be drier and cooler before another rainstorm for the weekend. This is extremely depressing for those who love snow, as I do. I'm almost ready to write this winter off as a complete failure, but I keep reading long term forecasts that say February and March will be much colder and snowier...I guess we can only wait and see. Enjoy the rest of the day and do your homework because there is no certainty of a delay tomorrow.

"If you dont like the weather...

...wait a minute. That saying is held near and dear to New Englanders, and it will hold true for the next few hours. I do not like the weather right now. Its warm, humid, wet and oh-too-springlike. So, I'm going to wait a minute or a few hours anyway. When I wake up tomorrow, temperatures will be back to winter levels and there will be a fresh blanket of snow on the ground. :-D. Expect 2 or 3 inches, maybe 4 if we're lucky. I'll stick witht hat for now, more on next week tomorrow.

Now for an update regarding my weather station: I have been having problems uploading from the station to the internet. I hope to have these problems resolved shortlyp by devoting an old computer solely to this purpose. As things come together I'll let you know. For now, sorry about the "No Data" box to your right:(.

Soggy Saturday...Snowy Sunday...

...one Wild Weekend. Sorry for the late and brief post. When you wake up Saturday, it will probably be raining. Get used to it - all day will see rain. Heavy at times, too. As the storm passes by, temperatures will plummet 20 or 30 degrees. This means snow for late Saturday night and into Sunday. Expect 2 or 3...but don't hold it against me if that doesn't happen. Next week will warm up again with more rain Tuesday or Wednesday. Enjoy the weekend.

Return to winter....somewhat...

OK I'll admit it, the warm weather was nice today. I was able to get stuff done outside that I wouldn't normally do until the spring. We have one more day of "heat" in front of us...temperatures will likely reach into the 50s tomorrow. Rain arrives at night, and Saturday will be a total washout. Sorry! The good news is, cold air is coming in behind the storm. If there is enough moisture left, we will see some snow Saturday night into Sunday. Right now, it looks like enough precip will still be around for 1-3 inches of snow. Sunday and Monday are very cold, but another warm-up and more rain chances are in store for next week:( Have a good Friday.

Rain in store

Hello everyone, I hope you are having a great Wednesday. The weather won't be affecting you, as temperatures have held in the low 40s with cloudy skies. That rain will move in for tonight...we could even hear some rumbles of thunder. Skies will clear Thursday with temps approaching 50...may hit or surpass that mark on Friday. More rain moves in for Saturday, and the cold air settles in behind that. Highs Sunday won't make it to 30. Will that set up a snow potential for next week? Stay tuned!

A few words about my forecast and then my first...

Welcome to the first official post of Tony's Weather Blog. Here, I will try to regularly update you on the weather and how it will affect us here in the Concord area. A few notes about my forecasts: they are like any other forecasts. They may not always be 100% correct. Also, for anything beyond the next 24 hours, I use other available forecast and try to synthesize one collective, hopefully more accurate one. Shortly I will give you links to the sites that I use. Now for the forecast:

Mid-January thaws are not all that rare around here. As much as I love snow and cold, there just isn't going to be any around here in the next few days. If you look at the charts on my Weather underground page, you will notice that the barometric pressure has been dropping steadily since a high of 30.39inHg at 10:00 this morning. That usually means that a storm is moving in. OK. For now, that's what I can tell you. I can also say that with the West wind, no significantly colder air will be moving in. So if a storm does arrive, it will be bringing rain.

Now I turn to other sources. Sure enough, some rain is forecast to move in for Wednesday night and early Thursday morning. It will be in and out in a snap - no biggie. Thursday will see clouds giving way to sun with highs in the low 40s. Friday cold be really warm - nearing 50 degrees - before another possible rainstorm arrives Saturday. Behind this storm could lie some colder air. Stay tuned, and enjoy the warmth (if you're into that...)

Here we go!

Tony's Weather Blog is officially up and running!!! As long as you check here when I have my computer on (most of the time...) you can see my current observations in the sticker to your right. The first forecast post will come out tomorrow. See you then!!!

Still waiting...

I am currently waiting for the adapter that wil allow me to plug the station into the computer. Everything else is set up...as soon as it comes in this blog will be up and running. Thanks for your patience.